The Paris climate agreement is a landmark global accord, signed by nearly 200 countries in December 2015, with the primary goal of mitigating the worst impacts of climate change. One of its key targets is to limit global temperature rise to 1.5 degrees Celsius above pre-industrial levels, a threshold that carries significant implications for the planet's future.
The agreement's urgency is underscored by the recent statement from UN Secretary-General António Guterres, who has warned that surpassing the 1.5C target is now 'inevitable' ahead of the COP30 meeting in Brazil in November 2025. This stark reminder highlights the critical nature of the agreement's objectives.
The Paris agreement outlines several commitments, including limiting global temperature rise to 1.5C and keeping it well below 2.0C, achieving net zero greenhouse gas emissions by the second half of the century, and setting emission-reduction targets for each country, reviewed every five years. Richer countries are also expected to provide climate finance to help poorer nations adapt to climate change and transition to renewable energy.
The 1.5C target is a 20-year average, meaning that individual years may temporarily exceed this threshold. Climate scientists emphasize that every 0.1C of warming increases the planet's risks, such as prolonged heatwaves, more intense storms, and wildfires. However, warming of 2C or more would exacerbate these risks, leading to far greater impacts, according to UN scientists.
These impacts include increased exposure to extreme heat, rising sea levels due to melting glaciers and ice sheets, heightened food insecurity in certain regions, the spread of climate-sensitive diseases like dengue, increased species extinction, and the near-total loss of coral reefs. Some changes could become irreversible if 'tipping points' are crossed, though the exact thresholds are not yet clear.
The Paris agreement also addressed the needs of poorer countries, with richer nations committing to provide $100 billion annually by 2020 to help developing nations tackle climate change and build greener economies. While the goal was eventually achieved in 2022, a new fund was established in 2023 exclusively for loss and damage, to help countries recover from climate change impacts.
Since the Paris agreement, world leaders have met annually at COPs to discuss their climate commitments. While progress has been made, the transition away from fossil fuels remains a challenge. The long-term 1.5C global warming target has not yet been breached, but current warming rates suggest the world could pass this threshold around 2030. This has led to concerns that the agreement's goals may not be met, despite the potential for sharp emissions cuts to make a significant difference.
